Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 7 – Minnesota Vikings 13

(13:08) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to MIN 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 15 for no gain (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.98 EP
63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model