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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 18

Minnesota Vikings 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +2.89 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 18, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model