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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 10

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.94 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP