4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 86

New Orleans Saints 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to MIN 44, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.80 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 86, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 44, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP