Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

(6:05) 14-R.Wright punts 51 yards to NO 6, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-33-B.Asamoah.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.72 EP
69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model