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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to MIA 13, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.72 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 20, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model