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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 5

Miami Dolphins 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 5, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP