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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Miami Dolphins
4th & 4 at the 45
Miami Dolphins 15 – Cincinnati Bengals 27
What Actually Happened
(:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 10-T.Hill.
The Three Options
GO
+0.63 EP
What Happened
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.02 EP
- 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -0.59 EP
KICK
+0.84 EP
Model's Pick
- 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
- 56% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT
-0.07 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
