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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 15 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 4-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to CIN 28, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-20-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP