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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 1

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Miami Dolphins 15

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 2-E.McPherson 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +3.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 1, worth +0.66 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.07 EP