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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 2

Miami Dolphins 12 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 7-J.Sanders 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 2, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP