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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 78

Miami Dolphins 12 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 4-T.Morstead punts 66 yards to CIN 12, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 35 for 23 yards (81-D.Smythe; 45-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.73 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP