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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 10-K.Huber punts 28 yards to MIA 42, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-48-C.Adomitis.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model