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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 65

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 17-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to LV 13, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 1-T.Johnson to LV 13 for no gain (26-M.Boone).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.46 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model