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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 13

Las Vegas Raiders 22 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(9:54) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +3.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.02 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 13, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP