Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 98

Denver Broncos 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 22

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 17-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to DEN 48, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-K.Cole to DEN 41 for 7 yards (82-E.Saubert). PENALTY on LV-1-T.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 41.

The Three Options

GO -3.63 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.18 EP
59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 98, worth -6.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model