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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 22 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to DEN 1, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-41-M.Farley.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.92 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 20, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model