Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 76

Denver Broncos 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 22

(1:09) 17-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to LV 32, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model