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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 3

Las Vegas Raiders 19 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.90 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 3, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP