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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 19 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to DEN 33, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-M.Washington to DEN 49 for 16 yards (41-M.Farley; 33-R.Teamer).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.29 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 75, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model