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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Denver Broncos
4th & 1 at the 43
Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10
What Actually Happened
(4:06) 33-J.Williams up the middle to LV 41 for 2 yards (52-D.Perryman).
The Three Options
GO
+1.49 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.08 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.13 EP
KICK
-0.33 EP
- 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 48% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
