Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to DEN 28, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-M.Washington to DEN 48 for 20 yards (58-D.Butler). LV-59-L.Masterson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.67 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 79, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model