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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 9

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.10 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 9, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP