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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.94 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model