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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model