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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 25

Buffalo Bills 10 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen scrambles left end to BAL 21 for 4 yards (56-J.Bynes).

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.35 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model