Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Buffalo Bills 3

(1:57) 11-J.Stout punts 46 yards to BUF 24, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-25-K.Seymour.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model