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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 3 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 8-S.Martin punts 37 yards to BAL 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP