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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 18 at the 24

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.66 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 34, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model