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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to ARI 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 34 for 5 yards (34-S.Chandler; 27-M.Blair).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.12 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP