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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 1 at the 10
Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 0
What Actually Happened
(7:31) 4-R.Moore right tackle to CAR 14 for -4 yards (53-B.Burns).
The Three Options
GO
+3.35 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.24 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.23 EP
KICK
+1.57 EP
- 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT
-0.33 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
