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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 32

Carolina Panthers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 26

What Actually Happened

(6:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to ARI 16 for 16 yards (3-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model