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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(9:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (94-Z.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.43 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 27, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model