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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 14-A.Lee punts 60 yards to CAR 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-S.Smith to CAR 29 for 19 yards (51-T.Vallejo). FUMBLES (51-T.Vallejo), recovered by CAR-28-K.Taylor at CAR 30. 28-K.Taylor to CAR 30 for no gain (89-S.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.32 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model