4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 15

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.78 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model