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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.07 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP