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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 25 yards to CLE 48, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds. Punt deflected by 28-N.Killebrew.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model