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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 17

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cleveland Browns 23

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.93 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model