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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 90

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cleveland Browns 23

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to CLE 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 80-C.Rogers to CLE 49 for 4 yards (42-J.Pierre).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.50 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 90, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 47, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model