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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 26, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model