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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 16

Cleveland Browns 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 3-C.York 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.58 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model