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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.85 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model