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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 36

Cleveland Browns 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 27-K.Hunt right guard to PIT 27 for 9 yards (25-A.Witherspoon, 51-M.Jack). CLE-71-J.Wills was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.69 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model