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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 27

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 4-E.Pineiro 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.89 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model