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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 59

Carolina Panthers 22 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NO 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-23-S.Thomas-Oliver.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.54 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model