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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 13 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(5:11) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 45-G.Ricci (56-D.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.58 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model