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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 11

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(:33) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-H.Anderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin, recovered by NO-4-B.Gillikin at CAR 24.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.05 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model