Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(12:45) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NO 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 5-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.27 EP
69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -2.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model