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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model