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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 3

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 2-D.Carlson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +3.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 3, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP